Ohio State vs. Toledo football preview, prediction

Ohio State vs. Toledo football preview, prediction thumbnail

Ohio State hosts Toledo in its nonconference finale at Horseshoe in college football’s Week 3 action.

The No.

The No.

But you still have plenty of time to build your College Football Playoff resume. Showing off in games such as this is a great way to start. Here’s everything you need to know about Saturday’s matchup in the ‘Shoe.

Week 3 college football schedule: Ohio State vs. Toledo

Week 3 college football schedule: Ohio State vs. Toledo

How to watch

When: Sat., Sept. 17

Time: 7 p.m. Eastern

TV: Fox network

Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

Game odds, point spread, betting lines

Line: Ohio State -32

O/U: 62

Moneyline: UT 1300 OSU -5000

FPI pick: Ohio State 97.4%

What you need to know

Toledo: The presumptive favorites in the MAC this season – FPI predicts it could win 10 games this year – have outscored opponents 92-10 so far. It’s against overmatched teams but that’s the way you should play in this type of competition. DeQuan Finn is a 61% passer who posts under 8 ypa, but is solid running the ball: he leads Toledo with 138 rushing yards and 3 of the team’s 8 rushing TDs. OSU’s front seven will be annoyed by Finn in the beginning, but Finn won’t get much from it due to a lack skill targets.

Ohio State: College football’s reigning No. The No. 1 offense hasn’t been as dominant as we expected. Jaxon Smith–Njigba isn’t missing much since CJ Stroud hit Marvin Harrison Jr. for 3 touchdowns last week. Harrison and Emeka Egbuka are both over 200 yards while TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams are good for 7.1 and 5.9 ypc, respectively, and should eat against a Toledo line that isn’t great against the run.

Ohio State vs. Toledo: Fast Facts

Ohio State is 32-0 under Ryan Day when scoring 30-plus points

Toledo is 2nd nationally allowing 5.0 points per game

OSU has not allowed a TD in 6 straight quarters, the longest since not allowing one in 8 in 2019

UT is 2nd allowing 58 passing yards per game

Ryan Day offenses are 38-0 when scoring 40-plus points

Toledo is 4th in total defense so far, allowing 183 yards per game

OSU is holding opposing backs to 2. 02 yards per carry, 9th best nationally

Toledo is 0-3 all-time vs. Ohio State

Ohio State has forced punts on 15 of opponents’ 23 possessions (65%)

Toledo is 9-19 all-time against top 25 ranked teams

Ohio State is 1st nationally with a 100% red zone scoring offense

Toledo is 1st in the MAC with 46 ppg and 230 rushing yards per game

OSU is 20-1 at home and 10-3 against non-conference opponents under Day

What happens?

Ohio State has been a fixture in the College Football Playoff rankings since winning the first-ever CFP national title.

Toledo has the piece at quarterback to make a lot of decent gainers with his legs early in the game, and he has 2 targets (Jamal Turner and Jerjuan Newton) who post over 20 yards per catch.

And the Rockets are pretty good in the red zone: their 6 scores inside the 20 are 2nd nationally behind Georgia and Clemson. Don’t forget Toledo played a strong Notre Dame team on the road last year, losing by 3 points. This could cause the Buckeyes to fall asleep if they think ahead to next weekend’s Wisconsin game.

JaxonSmith-Njigba’s return to the fold should be enough to keep that from happening.

College Football HQ Prediction: Ohio State 45, Toledo 16

According to AP top 25 poll

  1. Georgia
  2. Alabama
  3. Ohio State
  4. Michigan
  5. Clemson
  6. Oklahoma
  7. USC
  8. Oklahoma State
  9. Kentucky
  10. Arkansas
  11. Michigan State
  12. BYU
  13. Miami
  14. Utah
  15. Tennessee
  16. NC State
  17. Baylor
  18. Florida
  19. Wake Forest
  20. Ole Miss
  21. Texas
  22. Penn State
  23. Pittsburgh
  24. Texas A&M
  25. Oregon

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